Newspapers

January 12, 2009

The Countdown Conundrum

Since I live-blogged a darts match, I'm in no position to chuck rocks, but can I just point out that the Guardian is live-blogging Jeff Stelling's debut as presenter of Countdown*. New media; new rules I guess. As a friend says "This makes me happy!" And so it should.

*Note to American readers: a long-running tea-time letters and numbers quiz show popular with pensioners, students and the bedridden.

Annals of Punditry

Lord knows, we all blunder from time to time. Still, this is pretty impressive:

"Each year, in my last Economic View before Christmas, I try to shed some light on economic events of the previous 12 months by comparing what has actually happened with expectations published here in early January. This year, even more than usual, reading back through January's predictions has been a shock. Almost all have turned out to be wrong". Anatole Kaletsky, The Times, 18/12/06.

"My last article of every year looks back on the predictions I made in early January to shed some light on the economic and financial events of the previous 12 months. This tends to be a humbling experience, and this year it is even more so than usual." Anatole Kaletsky, The Times, 31/12/07.

"In the last Economic View every year, I look back at what I predicted in early January, to try to shed some light on the events of the previous 12 months. This is nearly always a humbling experience. .. This year, however, the routinely humbling experience has turned into a ritual humiliation. How else can I describe the public confession that I am now compelled to make: I hereby confess that on or about 14 January 2008, acting of my own free will, not under the influence of any drug and aware of the consequences of my actions, I wrote the following statements in the Times: 'The global credit crisis, far from taking a turn for the worse, is now almost over' and 'There will be no US recession' and 'Stock markets around the world will rise in 2008'... I must apologise to anyone misled by my analysis." Anatole Kaletsky, The Times, 29/12/08.

Journalists, of course, are very fond of demanding accountability from their subjects but, quite conveniently if also naturally, reject any suggestion that they be held to such standards themselves. I can't, off hand, think of a pundit fired for being wrong all the time. It certainly doesn't happen often. That's not to suggest that the Times should divest themselves of Mr Kaletsky's services, but readers should probably not treat his pronouncements any more seriously than they would the horoscopes. I dare say this applies to other economics "experts" too.
[Hat-tip: Private Eye]

January 11, 2009

Where Did It All Go Wrong?

I suppose it must have seemed a neat idea at the time, but Dan Drezner is absolutely correct: Bono's debut column for the New York Times is simply gibberish*. I guess one of the perks of celebrity is being able to find a publisher for nonsense that would, quite correctly, be rejected out of hand were it submitted by an average hack. Like Dan, I've no idea what point Bono is trying to make beyond a) he knew Frank Sinatra and b) people like Sinatra's songs.

*And that's after it was edited. Did no-one at the NYT pause to ask "Hang on, why are we printing this tripe?" Or did they say: "This will be great blog-fodder..."

January 04, 2009

Good News* from Somalia

For once. Also, for once, good news for a newspaper. Colin Freeman, the Sunday Telegraph's chief foreign correspondent has been freed 40 days after he and his photographer, Jose Cendon, were kidnapped by Somali pirates. BBC report here; brief piece by Colin here.

*Granted, if you're actually Somali the news is, generally speaking, probably as lousy as ever.

December 18, 2008

The Media Campaign

Ouch!

The paradox of this scene was that the Obama campaign’s communications strategy was predicated in part on an aggressive indifference to this insider set. Staff members were encouraged to ignore new Web sites like The Page, written by Time’s Mark Halperin, and Politico, both of which had gained instant cachet among the Washington smarty-pants set. “If Politico and Halperin say we’re winning, we’re losing,” Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, would repeat mantralike around headquarters. He said his least favorite words in the English language were, “I saw someone on cable say this. . . .”

Actually, I think that's a little unfair on Politico, but there's something to this nonetheless. Politico and Halperin and plenty of others have every incentive in the world to come up with fresh, counter-intuitive, let's-throw-this-against-the-wall-and-see-what-happens analysis; hence a political campaign might best be advised to do everything it can to ignore all this froth and sound and hubbub.


Department of Correction

Ah, it's that time of year again! Yup, the splendid blog Regret the Error rounds up the most entertaining newspaper corrections of the year. Some of my favourites:

The Daily Mail was among the newspapers to report that David Gest contracted herpes from Liza Minnelli on their wedding night. Not so!

In articles published on 23 and 26 May 2008, we gave the impression that Mr Gest had contracted a sexually transmitted infection and alleged that he had Liza Minnelli’s dog killed without her knowledge.
This was wrong. David Gest has never had a sexually transmitted infection and did not have Ms Minnelli’s dog killed.

We apologise to Mr Gest for any embarrassment caused.

From the West Australian:

Deep depression: Our economics editor has officially gone from recession to depression. By mangling the names of two of history’s most highly decorated economists, John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman, we not only created an economy of truth but blamed poor Milton Keynes for having “crazy” ideas (We can all learn from Depression, Opinion, page 21, September 29). Milton Keynes is an English town famous not only for its grid system of roads and its herd of concrete cows but because in 1998 it was deemed so boring that even chartered accountants refused to move there. The “crazy” ideas comment was intended for John Maynard Keynes, who was voted one of Time Magazine’s most important people of the 20th century - and who was not boring.

The Guardian:

We said that, in the American TV drama 24, Jack Bauer, the counter-terrorism agent, resorted to electrocution to extract information. You cannot extract information from someone who has been electrocuted because they are dead (Questioning, the Jack Bauer way, page 1, April 19).

The Guardian (again):

Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s novel is One Hundred Years of Solitude, not One Hundred Years of Solicitude as we had it (Actor plans to film long-lost Garcia Marquez screenplay, page 20, July 15).

And, of course, the Daily Star:

OUR article last Tuesday headed “It’s Sven Giggle Eriksson” pictured Mr Eriksson in a hotel restaurant with a young lady.We wrongly assumed that the lady was an admirer and suggested that he was fondling her.In fact the lady was Lina, Mr Eriksson’s daughter, with whom he was having a normal fatherly embrace.

We apologise to Mr Eriksson and his daughter for the embarrassment and distress caused by the publication of the photographs and incorrect assumptions made about them.


December 17, 2008

Headline of the Day

Nice work, Reuters:

Hat-tip: Radley Balko.

December 15, 2008

How to cut your own throat

Via Megan McArdle, I see that the Detroit News and the Detroit Free Press are taking a novel approach to the malaise that's crippling newspapers across America (and Britain): make it much more difficult for people to buy your product. At first you may think that this is so counter-intuitive that it must be brilliant. But it's not: it's every bit as stupid (I think!) as it sounds.

The Motor City papers are apparently only going to deliver papers to their readers' homes three days out of every seven. The theory, as I understand it, is that all this printing and delivering is too expensive to be justified on lighter advertising days such as Monday and Tuesday. In future, then, Detroiters will have to find a news-stand to buy the paper or, of course, read it online.

Now, sure, advertising revenue is falling off a cliff at the moment and there's no prospect of a recovery in the short-to-medium term. And I'm equally sure that some bright management types at Gannett (the papers' parent company) have done some sums and found a way of presenting this as a bold and exciting step that will revitalise the businesses. But I'll bet you the case is hooey nonetheless.

Readers are creatures of habit. And habits, once lost, are very hard to regain. That's to say that in many ways the key to holding on to circulation, let alone building it, does not lie in attracting new readers, but in persuading people who currently buy your paper two or three or four days a week to take it more frequently. (There's also, of course, the thing of trying to woo back former readers - but that's an even more difficult task.)

The Detroit papers, by contrast, are assuming that people who suddenly don't receive the paper Monday through Wednesday will continue to purchase it on advertising-heavy Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays. It seems much more likely to me, however, that readers will become accustomed to not receiving the paper early in the week and that this will, eventually, persuade them that they're not missing too much if they cease getting it delivered on Thursday, Friday and Sunday as well.

After all, if you can live without the paper some days, perhaps you can live without it on other days too? Maybe you don't actually miss it at all? Perhaps you're even secretly relieved you no longer have to feel as though you must wade through the paper each day? It could be that just getting the paper on Sundays is enough. The rest of the time you'll manage fine without the hard-copy, profitable paper edition. You didn't realise, did you, that buying the paper was such an easy habit to break? Well, it turns out it is.

And since print advertising remains vastly more profitable than online advertising, the costs of printing and delivering the paper on lighter advertising days act, essentially, as loss-leaders for the fat, ad-heavy, profitable days. But once you tell the public that, though they're used to being able to get beans every day, they'll now only get beans three days a week, don't be surprised if the demand for beans decreases. The punters will find something else and it won't necessarily be the alternative you hope they'd plump for. And of course, if the readers lose the habit and Thursday and Friday and Sunday circulation falls then so too, in the end, does your advertising revenue. Make that, your profitable advertising.

Sure, you might gain online readers but the modest revenue gains you make on the online swings are likely to be outweighed by the losses you incur on the print-edition roundabouts.

All this will be invalidated once someone figures out how to make online advertising pay, but that day hasn't arrived yet and nor, frankly, does it seem imminent. The industry may be in a parlous state and something may need to be done but that doesn't mean that anything is the something that must be done. In other words, this Detroit ploy seems* a move that's too clever by half and, consequently, is deeply stupid.

*Of course, I'm not privy to the actual numbers involved, but making your product worse or making it harder or less attractive to buy does not strike me as a particularly canny business plan. As always, however, I could be talking  -or writing - through my hat.

December 13, 2008

The Ingenuity of the British Journalist

Is such that, as you know, there's no need to bribe the fellow. From Simon Hoggart's Guardian column today:

A colleague of the late Raymond Jackson, "Jak" of the London Evening Standard, had an interesting tale. Jak was famous for including the names of firms - restaurants, pubs, even skip hire companies - in his cartoons. He would then sell the originals to the people mentioned, so getting two substantial fees for each drawing. What I hadn't realised is that he used to pre-sell the slot. He'd ring up Knight, Frank & Rutley, for instance, and ask if they wanted to appear as the estate agent that day. Then he'd call Strutt & Parker and see if they offered more. Only when the auction was over would he start on the drawing.

Doubtless one is supposed to disapprove of this sort of thing.


December 05, 2008

Why will no-one support independence?

Commenter Rab O'Ruglen  doesn't have much sympathy for the crisis afflicting the Tartan press:

While I have every sympathy for those who find themselves in employment difficulties through no fault of their own I cannot say I have any sympathy for the Scottish print medium whatsoever.  If you are looking for an example of a people less well served by its press than Scotland's, you have to go to totalitarian states to find it.

It is incredible that when the Independence movement has reached the stage of forming a government, all-be-it a minority one, that every single one of Scotland's public prints is pro-Union.  Sometimes vitriolically so.  These instruments in the main for the propagation of right-wing propaganda and the Union, supposedly in support of free market forces, seem remarkably resistant to the idea that they might not be able to make a profit indefinitely out of forcing on their readers a point of view with which they do not concur.

I know that this is a point much-cherished by many SNP supporters, who chafe at what they perceive to be the press's bias against the party. But it can only be a keenly pertinent point if it is, like, true.

First, there is not, at present, and, a couple of rogue polls aside, ever been a majority in favour of independence. If one assumes that, roughly speaking, at any given time somewhere between 25 and 40% of voters actually truly support independence, any newspaper that endorses the idea risks alienating the majority of its readers. Now if you could guarantee that all SNP voters would flock to buy a pro-independence paper then you might have a commercial argument for endorsing the idea. But you can't make any such guarantee. Are SNP voters in Glasgow going to purchase the Scotsman if the Edinburgh paper supports independence? This seems pretty unlikely.

Furthermore, it's worth recalling that the press is vastly less hostile towards the SNP than it used to be. The Scotsman, Scotland on Sunday and the Sunday Herald all endorsed the nationalists at the last Holyrood election. Granted, that had a good deal to do with the failures and tedium of the Lbour-Lib Dem coalition and granted, too, that these were not endorsements of independence at all. But still.

Finally, the idea that the Scottish press exists "for the propagation of right-wing propaganda" is entirely laughable, given that there isn't a single conservative paper in the country. No, not even the Scotsman. And SoS has certainly moved towards the left since the days when I wrote editorials for the paper.

And a last point: if no newspaper supports independence, that's as much a reflection of the SNP's failure to make an entirely persuasive argument as it is of any proprietorial hostility towards the party and its Big Idea.

December 03, 2008

The Death of Ink

Another sign of the times: every single employee of the Glasgow Herald, Sunday Herald and Evening Times was sacked today and told to reapply for their jobs (on changed  - that is, less favourable - terms and conditions of course) if they hope to have some sort of a future in newspapers. Or at least at the Herald Group. Early indications are that the company wants to cut the workforce by something like 20%.

But journalists and readers alike should not fret:

Managing director Tim Blott said: "We are creating an efficient operation fit for the 21st Century which will provide even more compelling and unique content for readers of all three titles and our websites.

"We are committed to producing vibrant and relevant newspapers and websites and see a bright future for The Herald, Sunday Herald and Evening Times and their digital versions. 

Why should anyone doubt this?

Standard disclaimer: newspapers have, generally speaking, been lucky over the years. Or rather, there are plenty of other industries and trades that have seen plenty of this sort of stuff before. So there ought not to be too much special pleading from hacks, but, still, this is sad, depressing, even infuriating stuff.

 

December 02, 2008

Scottish Politics Update

For those of you interested in Scottish politics, it's not a bad thing to be able, not before time, to welcome the country's newspapers to the blogosphere. So, huzzahs for The Steamie then, a new blog devoted to tartan politics written by the political journos at the Scotsman, Scotland on Sunday and the Edinburgh Evening News. I think they're having what's known as a "soft launch" and it will doubtless take them some time to become accustomed to blogospheric ways, but it's good to see them swimming in these waters...

November 25, 2008

New Labour RIP

I've too much respect for my friends at The Times to ask if Rupert Murdoch dictated that this Peter Brookes cartoon appear on the paper's front page today...

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The Thunderer's leader column makes it pretty clear, I think, that the Times will not be endorsing Labour at the next election:

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown both promised reform of public services that might have allowed the quality of services to be maintained at a lower rate of spending. In the absence of that reform, high spending and the maintenance of a large public sector workforce became the only way of maintaining servive levels. Yet such spending has proven unsustainable.

It is this which led Labour to its fateful decision. At the last two elections it contrasted spending growth with an offer of tax and spending cuts from the Conseratives that it characterised as ideological and unrealistic. This cannot be the dividing line at the next election because Labour will itself have to restrain spending and will be offering only tax rises. So Labour has chosen a different dividing line. It will fight, as it used to, partly on taxing the rich.

The deep international crisis would have been difficult for any Government. For this one - with excessive borrowing already underway - the challenge is particularly severe. It has mortgaged the future on the ideas of the past.

This is the thing that Labour MPs such as Tom Harris do not appear to grasp: everyone appreciates that this is an international crisis, what people are angry about - and not unreasonably so - is that Britain appears more, not less, vulnerable than all its peers. No wonder folk are upset that government debt is set to rise to 57% of GDP - a figure not seen even in the desperate times of the late 1970s.

Of course, in 1976, Jim Callaghan told the Labour Party conference: "We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists."

Apparently it does now.


Department of Hackery

One of the things that distinguishes a good columnist from the ordinary, run-of-the-mill shill is the ability to treat their own party's failings as severely as they would condemn the blunders committed by the other lot. Similarly, there's something to be said for the rigour that consistency demands. Polly Toynbee may be correct (though I'd wager she isn't) that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling played a blinder on Monday, but does anyone imagine that if it was a Conservative government presiding over this recession she would write anything as, I don't know, cheerful and complacent, as this?

Even if unemployment reaches 3 million, that still leaves 90% in secure jobs. Most people will suffer not at all in this recession: on the contrary they will do well as prices fall and the real value of their earnings rises.

On the other hand, if La Toynbee is correct and this is indeed the moment in which Labour unfurled a moth-eaten banner proclaiming "social justice" then the result of the next election is not in doubt.

November 18, 2008

The Importance of the Reverse Ferret

I'm pleased to see that Jack Shafer is calling the New York Post's sudden admiration for President-elect Barack Obama a fine example of the time-honoured tabloid tradition of the Reverse Ferret. (See TDL here and here for more on the importance of ferrets to tabloid newspapers). But there's nothing terribly surprising here: Obama is enormously popular and the NYP publishes in a city that voted for the new guy overwhelmingly. It would be nuts to be anything other than gushingly enthusiastic about the new President's prospects.

Remember too that the tabloids can't live on cynicism and manufactured outrage alone. No, they need a thick streak of sentiment too. Hence their enduring love for have-a-go heroes and rags-to-riches stories. Mawkish gloop sells too.The news business is, as Rupert Muroch might remind you, also part of the entertainment business. And what that means is that, sometimes at least, the punter is king: what the mugs want, the mugs get. It never pays for a tabloid to move too far from public opinion. The best tabloid editors - and Kelvin McKenzie, originator of the phrase "Reverse Ferret" was, in his own gruesome fashion, one of the best - never forget this.

Right now, Obamamania makes commercial and political sense. It's also cost-free since, of course, the President-elect hasn't had time to disappoint anyone yet. Consistency may be a virtue, but it's not one much honoured by tabloid newspapers. And nor should it be.

[Hat-tip: Englishman in New York]

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